Predictions about the future are hard
by Volker Weber
Will try some anyway. They are all mine. If I get them wrong, they are still mine.
- Lotus Notes and Domino are doing much better than anybody expected. Version 7 will have a great uptake. Actually because of prediction #3.
- Sametime will lose a few big customers. It has been neglected for too long. Almost every single Sametime customer is also an Office customer, most of them should also have Active Directory. Watch for some shops to drop Sametime and go with LCS instead.
- (Lotus) Workplace is about as successful as Raven. To save it, IBM will eventually fold it into Portal, where it should have been anyway.
- Don't get me started on Quickplace.
Comments
Please do get started on QuickPlace. Would be very interested on your take.
I think I'd agree about SameTime.
To save it all that's needed is to revamp the SameTime client. The basics are there, the functionality is there but the eye candy that the users expect is missing.
At the end of the day that's all that LCS has over SameTime.
Those are almost too near term to be predictions. I agree of course, though would suggest the following:
1. Domino will become the backbone for Workplace applications.
2. Workplace applications will be almost entirely created from Designer, and 99% created before Designer really is finished and in use will be wasted effort.
3. Starting with Hanover (Notes "next") -- Though Workplace applications will surface through Portal and through the Rich Client (eclipse); those which surface through the rich client will start life almost entirely as Notes applications with Workplace functionality grafted in. Workplace designer use will grow to flesh out the applications over time making them more and more hybrid but never replacing the Domino Designer.
4. Domino will become the backbone for Workplace applications, using its data storage for securely storing the xml that makes up its native design and one aspect of its data elements.
5. Workplace Messaging will dissapear and be served entirely through Domino severs.
My predictions on these first five are to all happen within 18 months of today.
For some others, perhaps longer term -- and not as specific...
As for sametime -- Connection protocols will standardize and codec interfacing will as well. Some protocol will emerge to better handle the job than a combination of SIP and RTP or H.323. I'm betting IAX2 has a really good shot at it because its firewall friendly. This makes 99% of what sametime currently does a commodity item to be filled by the open source community. IMHO, it already is. What's left is the fancy screen sharing and meeting management stuff -- and that is the competitive space of the future. Personally, I see little chance for sametime to win that battle.
DB2 will become a leading platform for storing semi-structured xml based data within the next few years, while Oracle's trouble with misguided management and poor focus will really hurt its stock price and product offerings. Oracle looses big in the next few years, IMO.
Sun is the next SGI. They're a buyout target already and will become less and less important as someone buys them just to control Java (though they'll have very little luck in doing so).
On a last prediction -- way out there and my least confident (but most hopeful) prediction is that consumers will finally reject overreaching DRM technology just about the time people realize they need new and and expensive monitors and televisions in order to view high end content because Sony, Microsoft, and their ilk insist on closing what they call the "Analog hole" in their DRM strategies (which refers to the fact that you can video or audio tape in analog on the display output jacks or speaker audio).
My prediction: There won't be a Domino Designer 8.0 as standalone application anymore. It rather will be a series of plug-ins into Eclipse providing Eclipse's feature set (code outline, support for custom classes for LS, debugging, plug-ins) turbocharged by designer's support for the form editor, the @formulas, Lotus Script and the resource views.
DXL will become more complete and allow transition between workplace code and Domino code....
... and don't forget about that world peace thing...
:-) stw
I agree on Sametime, even though the 7.1 look is very good and a huge improvement on the current version.
Stephan -- Lets bet a beer on it then? I'll take the specific side:
"There will be a version 8 Domino Designer -- by which I mean the next major release after 'Hanover' regardless of its name will have a design tool which is substantially recognizable as Domino Designer even if IBM changes the name (nobody can predict or decipher IBM name strategies)."
I have to agree with Paul. Version 7.1 of Sametime fixes a LOT of the problems people have with it, and it has that very sexy Hannover-ish GUI. Hopefully it's not TOO late to stem the tide...
What a refreshing look forward for Sametime its new product manager has provided. 7.0 begins to catch up with the competition and 7.beyond sounds good too. Hopefully it isn't too little, too late.
I've not seen/used the Sametime Client 7.1 yet, but is it really better than ICT? (please answer without the philosophical parts ;-))
"Sometime" 7.1
@Andrew
OK. So the bet is: You say there will be a Domino Designer in its own right/code base. I say it will be an Eclipse plug-in (but still providing the Designer functions). We don't care how it will be called. We bet a beer or a beverage of similar value (I don't drink).
Let's handshake on the Sphere to that (and come to my BoF session).
:-) stw
http://www-8.ibm.com/software/au/events/nd7/download/ND7_Keynote.pdf
You can see screenshots of Sametime 7.1 starting on slide 31 of the above IBM presentation.
Hm, Stephan, its going to be hard to split the hairs and determined which of us is right looking at how we're both worded, but a beer is a beer and I'll share one with you either way. We'll shake on it at 'sphere.
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