Observations from CeBIT
by Volker Weber
When I return from CeBIT people will ask me, what's new? Well, that depends entirely on what you find interesting. Here are a few observations:
- Broadband Internet is finally going to happen. Deutsche Telekom opens its VDSL to competitors and will work with them to to build the network. Resellers will lose in this game, network operators win. Telekom will also start to offer double play (phone plus Internet) instead of only tripple play (phone plus TV and Internet). This opens up the market for SMB customers. 50 MB downstream and 10 MB upstream. That is what I have been waiting for and it should be available in about three months.
- Border routers for homes and small businesses become universal players. The same device can connect to VDSL, ADSL, cable and UMTS/HSPA and soon LTE – though a USB modem stick. This enables the carriers to sell Internet access without the customer waiting for his line to be switched. Take the device home, plug it in and start to work. When DSL becomes available to the device it will switch over from UMTS/HSPA to DSL. Carriers want you to use the broadband modem when away from home. Will see what kind of tariffs they come up with. I guess it will be flatrate for a day, and that is a good choice for casual use.
- Carriers work closely with device manufacturers for their all-in-one routers. That is bad news for those who are not partnering with the carriers. Same play as with mobile phones. Either you get listed or you don't. Carriers want multiple suppliers though, so that their partners don't get too bold.
- Apple is missing the boat on netbooks. Everybody wants one, most freelance reporters have one. Reporters working as employees are waiting for their IT departments to catch up with the world. This is the mobile devices they have been waiting for. Bonus points for 3G+ modems. The hunt for WiFi is officially over with these machines. What makes the netbook so desirable? Weight, size, battery capacity, sturdiness. I don't see any professional using a MacBook Air for instance. Battery capacity is way too low, it does not feel solid enough to just throw it around, and it's often too big. I'd love to have a device with all capacities of a netbook with Mac OS X, and I want it to be an official one and not a Hackintosh.
- Microsoft has their Online Services all lined up. They resell through partners. 12% of revenue for every seat throughout its first year, 6% for every consecutive year. All hosted by Microsoft. This is easy money not only for small fish. Vodafone has signed up as a big partner. Exchange Online, SharePoint Online, and Office Live Meeting trials are now available in 19 countries.
- I am going to phrase this as a question. Is Notes a dirty word? IBM is pushing a Microsoft-free desktop. Their story is pretty solid with a four stage approach that may work well with customers. And it carefully avoids using the words Lotus Notes. It's the IBM SOA Client, it has many plug-ins, also mail and calendar plug-ins ... In no way I am suggesting that Notes is a bad choice. But it seems to me that the Microsoft-free story tellers are trying to avoid a conversation stopper.
- IBM is pushing cloud computing big time. Their most expensive exhibit was about cloud computing. SOA is still around, but the trump card for bullshit bingo is as of now "cloud".
- CeBIT is now what Systems always wanted to be. Business to business. There are still some tourists carrying bags with free stuff, but they are no longer the majority. This is good. I will be back next year.
Comments
I'm with Gruber regarding Apple and Netbooks.
And does the fact that I'm using an Air mean I'm not a professional? ;-)
No, it means you have a power source readily available and you don't mind carrying a power brick.
Interesting stuff about broadband. I was under the impression that ADSL 2+ (20 Mbps/1Mbps) was pretty much the end of the line for Copper based residential connections and that we would need to move to Fiber beyond that. From what I read you need to be less than 1Km away from the DSLAM for VDSL to work, that means I'm out of luck, and I need to look for a new house ;-( Too bad I really liked my 1782 House in the middle of the French country side.. (I'm 1.8 Km away from my DSLAM).
Joel, what they here is that they run fiber close to the homes and then use copper for the last 300 meters. Here is a gallery of the technology and how it is deployed in Germany.
Article (german) about VDSL in Germany. Pretty old, but the basics are well explained.
http://www.zdnet.de/mobile/tkomm/0,39023192,39141043,00.htm
I want this "braadband" for myself :-)
Damn, checking for VDSL coverage reveals that I live about 150m away from a zone with maximum bandwidth :-(