Similarities
by Volker Weber
I only have second hand knowledge about the political situation in Italy, so I cannot really comment on the election there. There are some striking similarities to the US election however. The country is divided, the results are very close, and Berlusconi takes a lesson from his friends: He wants a recount.
Comments
Hm, aber war's nicht so, dass der Florida Recount gerade von Bush abgebrochen wurde?
Stimmt. Die lagen ja vorne. ;-)
Volker, thank you for serving me this "golden opportunity" to drop you a first hand comment.. :)
Yes Italy is (apparently) divided but in reality not much has changed in the way people think and vote here in "Il Bel Paese". Have a look by your self at the results.
Please note that Forza Italia, Berlusconi's party, still holds a considerable share of votes (23,7%) having gained in popularity the last few weeks from it's lowest point, last year.
Interestingly, Berlusconi calling "dickheads" the opposition voters seem to have worked to his advantage and not backfired on him. It really makes you wonder....
Consider that the right wing coalition was shown 8% behind the opposition in the most recent projections.
However, it's the voting system that has changed and coalitions nowadays tend to form well before the voting and not after, as it used to be in the old days.
The "left wing" formation led by Romano Prodi is now based on 15 parties (yes fifteen!) and is unlikely to last for long, as even a very small party with 2% of the votes pulls out, the coalition collapses. Again, note that in the first chamber the situation is 49,7 % against 49,8% but in the second chamber (il Senato) the majority of 3 seats is achieved counting 6 "senatori a vita" (honorary, lifelong senators) among which are the 100 years old Rita Levi Montalcino, 87 years old former prime minister Giulio Andreotti and a few more "dynosaurus".
Are they going to shape the country's future? :o
A few other things are causing concern here: the present government, thoug on notice, will still be technically in charge for another month or so. Can you, for instance, immagine the amount of damage that could potentially be done to the country by some upset minister?
This is subject to a lot of debate in the last few days.
Finally, the other interesting thing is considering how much criticism (and attention) Berlusconi has had from the media all over the world so far.
Being a very successful person in whatever he did, doesn't always help apparently, especially in politics. And all media constantly attacking Berlusconi on his supposedly "dark" methods of doing business in the past are certainly not focusing on what really went wrong with this government.
Makes you really wonder, if this is not envy, what is it than?..
What really makes me worry is the Alleanza Nazionale that won 12.3% of all votes and nobody seems to care. =(
Phillip, I understand your concern but what about the "NO EURO" party?
Believe it or not, they got about 0,2 % of the votes. :-D
@Pieter:
I think it is very justified to look at Berlusconi's methods. His government has passed a stream of laws which only help him get out of his legal problems - doing things like shortening statutes of limitations, restricting the legality of foreign documents (well, that's a swiss bank account, so we cannot consider it...). The voting system was changed BACK to proportionality by Berlusconi to create exactly the kind of stupid "23 party coalition" effect we see nowadays. The economy has gotten worse in Italy - but Mr Berlusconi's net worth went from 3 billion euros to about 9 billion euros. And don't get me started on conflicts of interest, plus dilution of the media's objectivity.
Italy is in a bad shape right now. The traditional economy based on small companies manufacturing clothes, white goods, and tools is going to get wiped over by China. The traditional Italian reaction (devaluing the lira) is not an option anymore. And apart for some reform of the pensions, Berlusconi has mostly concentrated on getting mr Berlusconi out of prison.
The real snag is that Prodi's coalition does not look that promising either.
And wasn't Germany's last election similar to both the US' and Italy's?
Well, I'm just glad (or sad, I can't decide which) to see that politics is pretty much the same ridiculous sideshow in other places besides here in the good 'ol US of A.
I consider it to be an acceptable opinion to be against the European Union or parts of it, but it will never be acceptable to be/vote fascist.
Andrew, you seem well informed about the local situation here.
I can get all you said easily from Newspapers, Magazines, talk shows and even in the movies. .
What you say is all true, but you are missing my point.
I don't care if Berlusconi's wealth has grown from 3 billion up to whatever he likes.
What I do care for, is that if I need a simple injection from a doctor, five years ago I could get it for free from the local council whereas nowadays I have to go to the hospital or privately pay for it.
The premises are still there, with the same number of people working there (at the same cost to the taxpayer, presumably) but the services they provided to the community are no longer available.
This government has tried reducing expenditure by cutting the money allocated to social services, not by making the public administration more efficient which, in my opinion, is unacceptable.
Everybody talks about Berlusconi's wealth, very few people are talking about the real problems.
Pieterjan, thanks for the detailed insights. I read a couple of articles in German newspapers and magazines over the last week, but you could still add some new aspects (new to me). Again, thanks a lot!
@Pieterjan/Pieter:
The point I was trying to make is that Berlusconi has invested a disproportionate amount of time and energy during his administration solving his personal problems, especially his legal ones. Worse, he has left behind severely damaged institutions, especially the legal one, and the result is that the rest of the world is not really taking Italy seriously anymore. Remember the debacle with Antonio Fazio? His dubious practises are what led to his concentration on his legal problems, so one could argue that they are a direct cause of his lack of involvement in the problems.
But then again, Pieter, I would argue that "he has been cutting social services" is one necessary part of the solution. I just don't see any alternative. More or less all the European countries are faced with the same structural problems:
1. An ageing population which is making our active-workers-pay-now-for-the-pensioners-and-ill-people system completely unpayable (Public debt in Italy is 106% of GDP!)
2. Increased competition from abroad.
3. Still large parts of the population who are civil servants, and who politically block any change that would possibly challenge their advantages. France here, with 25% of the active population as civil servants, is the biggest exponent of this.
In my opinion there are two way to deal with this : 1. Denial (which Berlusconi does wonderfully well) or 2. Change, with really unpopular moves. Politically, 1. is a lot easier that 2.
The UK went with 2. under Thatcher. France makes changes on the stealth, while openly proclaiming that all is fine (generally they justify the changes with "it's because of the EU"). Italy has been sticking its head in the ground for decades now (and here it is not only Berlusconi who is to blame). In Germany, slowly, people, and trade unions, are starting to smell the coffee and are moving towards change. We guys really have to wake up. Just ignoring the rest of the world just is not a solution. We can live off our batteries for a decade or so. Italy even less.
